Cash flow forecast

Actual is what already moved, by the date it happened (posting or realized date). Contracted is what has a contract, by the contract date and amount or the current best estimate. Forecast is pipeline without a contract yet. Each row carries its view, and actual, contracted and forecast are distinct products, not a cascade where one fills the other's gaps.

Disbursements and contributions under negotiation enter multiplied by the commercial probability scale (for example: approved by committee 100%, hot 80%, warm 45%, cold 15%). A deal without a linked probability takes the lowest band, never 100%. From contracted onward, the amount enters in full. When the scale changes, comparisons crossing that date mix method with pipeline: record the date.

Portfolio bases often use the exposure sign: a disbursement or contribution adds to capital deployed, buybacks and amortization subtract. In cash it is the opposite: a disbursement is an outflow, a buyback or an installment received is an inflow. Convert once, in the cash layer, and state the convention: inflows positive, outflows negative.

Upcoming installments enter by expected date and, without one, by due date, within an explicit window: long contracts generate receivables for years. Upcoming installments from borrowers who are already delinquent stay out of inflows, except for an approved exceptions list. Overdue amounts go to their own recovery line. Renegotiated debt enters by the agreement's schedule, never by the old receivables.

Interest and dividends receivable, debt amortization and interest, and investor distributions enter by each contract's schedule (Price, SAC (constant amortization), scheduled amortization or cash sweep). A floating rate uses the projected index for the agreed period (for example, the previous month's Selic), with the contract's cap. Forecast uses the contracted view; actuals use what was actually paid.

The starting point is the closing balance of every bank account of every company or vehicle, on the last available day, converted to America/Sao_Paulo. Past months use the last day of the month. When management provides a statement balance different from the ERP, it enters as a one-day assumption, with the ERP amount kept alongside for audit.

Overdue rule, approved exceptions, renegotiations, new contracts, the week's manual expectation and the provided balance live in a table with value, validity (from and to) and a note, published from a versioned file. The adjusted forecast is the raw base plus the assumptions valid on the reference date. Meeting decisions go in another table, with no numbers. Nobody edits the query by hand.

The weekly manual expectation is an amount management expects to receive from new work or collections in progress. It is not a historical collection average. It appears on its own line and the forecast is also shown without it. An expected receipt only improves the forecast if it is additional (outside what the ERP already projects); if it is already in the ERP, it is already provisioned.

Save each week's forecast with the date it was made, in append mode, and keep the last version of each day of the pipeline. An approved budget is a frozen snapshot per cycle, compared with the target and with actuals. A cycle that was not run is absent on purpose and is not a load failure.